Yesterday (see previous article) we were talking about Conflict Zone Information Bulletins and the advisablity of observing the warnings in them. Today the Gulf region is overshadowed by actual war, a conflict between US military forces and Iran officially announced by Presiden Donald Trump of the USA.

President Trump was characteristically imprecise about America’s objective in conducting a war. Timescales were absent.

Yesterday, airline traffic was active over Iran, Iraq and all the states with shores on the Gulf. Today the skies are empty there.

There are streams of diverted traffic to the north and the south of the Gulf, wanting to fly between the Indian subcontinent/South East Asia and Europe. They have been forced to travel over the southern half of Saudi Arabia and through Egypt, or through the Afghanistan/Turkmenistan/Azerbaijan/Turkey bottleneck between southern Ukraine/southern Russia and northern Iran.

This war cannot be said to be a surprise following the steady build-up of massive American military capability in the area, both at sea and at land bases. But the first actual hostile moves in all wars are always a surprise when launched.

No-one knows where this is going. European states that normally ally with America through NATO are silent.