MH370: “Hopefully homing in on the aircraft”

Mathematician and Boeing 777 captain Simon Hardy is far from the only person to have advanced a reason-based proposition as to where MH370’s wreckage is most likely to be found, but his calculations have survived criticism and are as valid as any others in the public domain.

Here is what he has to say about how things stand now:

“The centre of the ATSB [Australian Transport Safety Board] hotspot and that of my own are now only 105nm apart. Before this report the centre of our preferred search areas were nowhere near this degree of agreement.

“My ‘hotspot’ is within the planned search area but in what the ATSB calls a Low Priority Area. They [ATSB] are however fully aware of my work on the matter, as I am in regular contact with them as I continue to try to pinpoint the aircraft as accurately as possible.” Hardy’s latter reference is to his work refining potential outcomes based on 777 glide performance combined with data derived from the last satellite handshakes.

“I am pleased that the area I have identified will at least be partially searched in the coming weeks. The ATSB seems to be using the sailing time to and from Fremantle  as a way of searching my preferred area en-route, thus saving time and expense.”

Hardy now refers to work on the MH370 disappearance by Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Group:

The DST Group results are derived in a totally different way from my own ‘technique’, yet give results that are in relatively close agreement. Considering the two methods are estimating a proposed position following more than six hours of flying ‘off radar’ this is a remarkable result, the distance covered during  those un-monitored six hours being many thousands of kilometres (approx 5,000km).”

He continues: “The likelihood of only one turn taking place, near the tip of Sumatra, for the journey south, was revealed by my technique back in December 2014. The latest report now agrees with that, so I am hopeful that we are now on the right track and homing in on the aircraft.”

Here is the latest the ATSB has to say about progress.

One thought on “MH370: “Hopefully homing in on the aircraft”

  1. Having recently watched a program on Malaysia Flight 370, I wondered if some refinements to the security of airplanes might prevent future disappearances.
    (I realize many of my ideas are not feasible, but they may trigger better solutions.)
    1. Vector Governor: Once a flight plan has been locked into on board computer, a ‘vector governor’ is activated: That is, if a major change from the original flight path is initiated, the Vector Governor activates a beacon (that the flight crew knows nothing about) that alerts ATC sites that something is amiss with this flight.
    2. A ‘PING’ device that is run by wave action. Certainly batteries have come along way; but the one immutable law of oceans is that waves are always present. Since a PING device would have to be separated from the airplane itself, perhaps multiple ping devices are present on airplanes, insuring that at least one will be thrown away from a breaking up airplane and able to begin ‘pinging’ to satellites.
    3. I’m not a chemist in the classical sense. But what if, in the manufacture of airplanes, a chemical (in form of a powder, brick, coating, etc) were included in the internal structure of an airplane that upon breakup and exposed to ocean water (salt water) a reaction occurs that creates a fluorescent dye that increases 10, 50, 100 fold: a) allowing search crews to spot it from above; b) so large that fish don’t attempt to eat it, and perhaps a chemical that tastes bad to fish is included in it’s formula.
    4. Transponder ‘OFF’: In Flt 370, it was noted that the Transponder was turned off after being airborne. Perhaps the ‘OFF’ position could also be a ‘ON’ switch to a hidden device that would take the place of the Transponder. Also, if a fuse were removed for longer than say 5 minutes, a secondary device would be activated to alert ground crews.

    Hopefully in the future we humans find ways to prevent needless tragedy.

    LARRY TREFFRY

    Like

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