Mathematician and Boeing 777 captain Simon Hardy is far from the only person to have advanced a reason-based proposition as to where MH370’s wreckage is most likely to be found, but his calculations have survived criticism and are as valid as any others in the public domain.
Here is what he has to say about how things stand now:
“The centre of the ATSB [Australian Transport Safety Board] hotspot and that of my own are now only 105nm apart. Before this report the centre of our preferred search areas were nowhere near this degree of agreement.
“My ‘hotspot’ is within the planned search area but in what the ATSB calls a Low Priority Area. They [ATSB] are however fully aware of my work on the matter, as I am in regular contact with them as I continue to try to pinpoint the aircraft as accurately as possible.” Hardy’s latter reference is to his work refining potential outcomes based on 777 glide performance combined with data derived from the last satellite handshakes.
“I am pleased that the area I have identified will at least be partially searched in the coming weeks. The ATSB seems to be using the sailing time to and from Fremantle as a way of searching my preferred area en-route, thus saving time and expense.”
Hardy now refers to work on the MH370 disappearance by Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Group:
“The DST Group results are derived in a totally different way from my own ‘technique’, yet give results that are in relatively close agreement. Considering the two methods are estimating a proposed position following more than six hours of flying ‘off radar’ this is a remarkable result, the distance covered during those un-monitored six hours being many thousands of kilometres (approx 5,000km).”
He continues: “The likelihood of only one turn taking place, near the tip of Sumatra, for the journey south, was revealed by my technique back in December 2014. The latest report now agrees with that, so I am hopeful that we are now on the right track and homing in on the aircraft.”