MH370 search to stop just short of Hardy’s predicted position

Two years ago Boeing 777 captain Simon Hardy calculated the most likely position of MH370’s undersea remains using only established facts and mathematics.

The Australian-led international search for the lost Malaysia Airlines 777, however, may be suspended in December just short of that position unless existing plans are amended.

Hardy’s proposed position, and the methodology that determined it, has been widely published, both in Flight International magazine in January 2015 and a month earlier on the web via FlightGlobal.com.

Most theories posted to the web – especially related to serious subjects like this – usually attract massive peer criticism and public comment, but Hardy’s has faced no criticism, just requests for clarification.

It has, however, attracted great interest, and he has met the Australian Transport Safety Board at their request more than once to talk about it.

He has now posted a spoken explanation of his methodology to YouTube, so if you want to test your mathematics and geometry, go there.

Hardy’s calculations put the resting position of MH370 just outside the planned area for the multinational search effort, close to its southern end. So the methodology that the official search team used produced results that are pretty close to the predictions Hardy reached independently.

Here is the ATSB’s explanation, posted on 21 September, as to why they will not look in Hardy’s predicted position even if the remainder of the planned search fails to find the aircraft:

“At a meeting of Ministers from Malaysia, Australia and the People’s Republic of China held on 22 July 2016, it was agreed that should the aircraft not be located in the current search area, and in the absence of credible new evidence leading to the identification of a specific location of the aircraft, the search would be suspended upon completion of the 120,000 square kilometre search area.”

The ATSB makes the intention clear: “It is expected that searching the entire 120,000 square kilometre search area will be completed by around December 2016.”

Hardy’s calculations put the MH370 wreck just outside that area, and they cannot be defined as “new evidence” because the ATSB knows about them already and has decided, without explaining why, not to search there.

By December the arrival of the southern hemisphere summer will have made the search much easier.

Hopefully the search team will find the aircraft remains within their planned search area. But what if they don’t?

If the ATSB won’t go there, Hardy is considering crowdfunding to extend the search for a few weeks into the area indicated by his work.

 

 

7 thoughts on “MH370 search to stop just short of Hardy’s predicted position

  1. Given the supposed ability of satellites to see small items in great detail I don’t understand why a more concentrated look can’t be made in the area highlighted in your article. Simarly back tracking the flaperon back from Madagascar to the crash site would seem possible given the right satellite photos. The objects don’t move very far each day so looking a few days apart due to clouds would seem reasonable.

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  2. Has Simon Hardy considered the possibility that the alternative route on the FMC was programmed to a waypoint in the South Atlantic (PIBED) or even a lat/long waypoint (2490S) for example?

    If an alternative route was entered and executed a fuel calculation would have been produced for each waypoint and then a TOD and end of descent could have been entered into the FMC that would have allowed a low speed descent to a low altitude.
    (Retired 767 Captain)

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  3. Hello David, is all well with you? We miss your words of wisdom!
    All best wishes for a happy Christmas!
    Nigel

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  4. What a shame that Captain Hardy’s amended search are will not be searched. Fugro’s ship was so close to his suggested search area while it was scanning in the ATSB defined search area. Now really, the cost of checking Captain Hardy’s suggested coordinates would be negligible within the grand scheme of things. The decision not to search there when they were practically next door already is in itself a tragedy. It boggles the mind to try and come to a rational explanation for their decision. So sad for the poor relatives of the victims of this disaster.

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  5. The data on which theories are based, whether Hardy’s or the ATSB-led consensus, is sparse. The essential is that MH370 is found, so good luck with the remaining search.

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