Crashes these days are incredibly rare, but a fairly new Boeing 737-800 of China Eastern Airlines has crashed in China on a domestic scheduled flight from Kunming to Guangzhou. It looks as if none of the 132 people on board have survived.
This incident is unusual in the sense that crashes very rarely happen in the cruise – that is, during the en-route section of the flight. This is because the crew has no high workload to deal with at that time, the engines are operating at a gentle cruise power, and the airframe is not under stress from manoeuvring.
According to the FlightRadar 24 tracker, the aircraft stayed on the same heading towards its destination while it descended toward the point of impact with the mountains. If it had broken up in the air because of sabotage or a catastrophic structural failure, it would almost certainly have spiralled down. But this aircraft was quite young, so structural failure can almost be ruled out.
We have no reports of a distress call to ATC, yet the aircraft began a descent. There was no reason for the crew to have adopted a descent profile at that point, because the descent toward its destination airport did not need to begin for another ten minutes.
If the crew had adopted a deliberate emergency descent because of sudden cabin decompression, it would have levelled at 10,000ft or thereabouts, whereas the last height reported by the tracker was 3,325ft.
The last time – indeed the only time – I saw a flight profile like this, the aircraft involved was the Germanwings A320 that crashed in France in March 2015, and the cause of that, according to the official investigation, was the copilot deliberately crashing the aircraft because of his mental state.
At this point, however, there is no direct evidence to support this conclusion regarding China Eastern and flight MU5735.
The most compelling evidence so far, as is often true so soon after a loss, is what did not happen. A Mayday call did not happen, although during a descent from 29,000ft there is plenty of time to make one.
The investigators will be trying to find out why that was.
Post Script on 19 May 2022: The Wall Street Journal has quoted US NTSB officials working with the Chinese authorities on the crash investigation as saying that the cockpit flight controls appear to have been manipulated deliberately with the apparent intention of crashing the aircraft. The NTSB press office will say only that it is for the Chinese authorities, in charge of the investigation, to make any such statements, and so far they have not done so.
3 thoughts on “China Eastern crash today”
Per data published by FR24, they went from level flight at 29,100ft to -21,696fpm in the space of 16s. Just 10s later and the rate of descent was 30,976fpm. One minute later the descent became a 8,448fpm climb before again plunging at 30,976fpm (probably terminal velocity). it was all over in less than two minutes.
It’s hardly surprising there was no radio communication (that we’re aware of yet).
It’s only speculation but it might be a good idea to look at the classic 737 rudder accidents. https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19940908-0
David, there is a history of Boeing using deficient parts on the 737NG and other aircraft, which whistleblowers alleged years ago would lead to a risk of inflight breakups. Should this be a case of inflight breakup, the Chinese investigators will likely take a look at a problem the FAA refused to acknowledge. See my post on this subject here. https://christinenegroni.com/china-eastern-crash-and-what-you-dont-know-about-737-ng/